[FIX] The rate the steward asked for was uncomputable: only failures were recorded

"Two weeks of true-versus-drawn rate" needs a denominator, and there was none. Rejections
were logged; draws were not, successes were not. The 73% that comes up silent — the
whole denominator — left no trace at all. The instrument named as the diagnostic could
report only its own failures, which is the shape of a log that always looks alarming and
can never be checked.

⚠ §8 AND §9 LOOK LIKE THEY COLLIDE HERE AND DO NOT, on the reading taken: §9's "filed
nowhere — no PENDING entry, no log, no item" governs the fool's OUTPUT entering the
record; §8 orders "report the observed mumble rate after two weeks". So this records
THAT something happened and never WHAT was said. log_event() takes a surface and an
outcome and structurally cannot be handed a line — asserted on co_varnames, because a
comment promising it would be a comment promising behaviour.

⚠ THE REJECTIONS LOG IS A DIFFERENT CASE AND IS NOT SETTLED. It holds up to 200
characters of his words, added at the steward's instruction so the log could answer
whether register and net are mismatched. That is nearer to filing than counting, and §9
says no log. Flagged in the code and put to the steward rather than resolved by the
party that wrote it.

Nothing reads any of it back. Measurement, not memory.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01J6hZXNYSxEfZseBGTni4sf

scripts/tarbuckle-body.py

@@ -92,6 +92,18 @@ def log_invocation(payload: dict) -> None:
         pass
 
 
+def _log_draw(kind: str) -> None:
+    """Occurrence only. Local, so the body needs nothing importable to tick."""
+    try:
+        d = os.path.expanduser("~/.claude/state/tarbuckle-draws.jsonl")
+        os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(d), exist_ok=True)
+        with open(d, "a") as fh:
+            fh.write(json.dumps({"t": time.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S%z"),
+                                 "surface": "tick", "outcome": kind}) + "\n")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+
 def _muted() -> str:
     """Local, not imported: the body must not depend on the generator being importable."""
     try:
@@ -148,6 +160,7 @@ def fire_tick(now: float, transcript: str) -> str:
     """
     _write_tick(now)
     kind = draw()
+    _log_draw(kind)          # the 73% is the denominator; unrecorded, no rate exists
     if kind == "silent" or not transcript:
         return kind
     try: